It’s make or break for some big countries in the qualifiers – read up
Week 15: Trouble for big countries?
Another International break is upon us which means our attentions switch from the usual previews based on top European leagues and take a look at the last round of fixtures from the qualification rounds for next year’s big event.
Prior to that, a quick recap of last weekend’s action which once again saw a fair few surprise results and some high scoring and highly entertaining matches. The PL started with a shock as Tottenham lost their second match in a week, this time at Wolves. Newcastle’s injury worries continue to mount as they fell to a loss at Bournemouth but there were wins for other top four hopefuls Manchester United and Arsenal on Saturday as well as Aston Villa and Liverpool on Sunday. The match of the weekend was the thrilling 4-4 draw between Manchester City and Chelsea. In France we saw wins for Paris SG, who overtook Nice to reach the top of the Ligue 1 table and bottom side Lyon finally got their first win of the season. Dortmund fell to their second successive league defeat in the Bundesliga, a result which saw them drop out of the top four. Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich both continue on their relentless winning runs at the top of the table. The Rome derby ended goalless but the shock of the weekend was a surprise home defeat for Napoli at the hands of Empoli and the top six in Spain all recorded wins.
There are no high-profile matches for the first few days this week with the first round of fixtures kicking off on Thursday evening. Some of the top nations are already qualified but there is still much to play for the likes of England, who ideally need to win their two matches despite being qualified already as this will mean they go through to the tournament as top seeds, therefore avoiding being in the same group as the likes of Germany, France or Spain. The most interesting aspects of Group A are Spain and Scotland doing battle for the top spot, as both are already qualified. In Group B, the Netherlands and Greece are tied on twelve points with the Dutch having the advantage of two games left to play, so they should find enough to finish second behind France.
In Group C, England have already qualified but there is a battle between Ukraine and Italy for second spot with the former currently holding a three point lead over Italy but having played a game more. Group D is a shootout between Wales and Croatia to see who will join Turkey in qualifying and three teams can still qualify in Group E, Albania, Czech Republic and Poland. Belgium and Austria have already qualified from Group F so it’s simply a matter of who finished first and the same can be said in Group G where Hungary and Serbia will contest top spot. Slovenia and Denmark are tied on nineteen points in Group H and both should make it through and the same can be said of Romania and Switzerland in Group I. Portugal utterly dominated Group J, having won every match and Slovakia need one point from their final two matches to join them in Germany next summer.
The main action starts on Thursday when nine qualification matches will take place. Spain will need three points from their relatively easy match away in Cyprus in order to hold off Scotland, who face a tougher task later in the day away in Georgia. Slovakia host Iceland knowing a point will guarantee their qualification and the likes of Austria and Portugal face straightforward opponents in Estonia and Liechtenstein respectively.
Friday starts with a match between Kazakhstan and San Marino with the home team having performed very well in this qualifying tournament. They have already amassed fifteen points and still have an outside chance of making it to Germany. Albania will hope to get all three points from their trip to Moldova later in the afternoon before the focus switches to the evening matches. Denmark host Slovenia in an intriguing battle between the top two in Group H and Poland play against the Czech Republic from Group G, two teams that can both make it through to the finals. England play minnows Malta at Wembley in the evening and will be hoping to test out a few new players in a match that they will be expected to win comfortably. Italy face a must win match against North Macedonia knowing that three points will take them level with Ukraine going into the last round of matches where those two play each other.
Saturday starts with a must win match for Wales in Armenia as they know anything less than three points will open the door for Croatia who play away in Latvia later in the day. France face an easy task at home to Gibraltar, a team who have yet to score a goal in this qualification group. Israel hosts Romania and Switzerland are home to Kosovo in the evening and the Netherlands face a must win match at home to Ireland, who have had a very disappointing set of results recently.
Hungary kick things off on Sunday at home to Montenegro, a match they will want to win in order to hold on to top spot in Group G. Serbia clash with Bulgaria at the same early kick off time, a match the home team will be thinking they can comfortably win. Belgium will expect three points at home to Azerbaijan and Sweden will be expecting the same at home to Estonia. Minnows Liechtenstein and Luxembourg face off in the evening and Portugal will attempt to continue on their perfect qualification run as they host Iceland.
There are no early games on Monday with all matches scheduled to take place at 8.45 in the evening. Albania will expect all three points at home to the Faroe Islands and the Czech Republic will be hoping to end their campaign with a win against Moldova. England end their Group C campaign on the road, away in North Macedonia with not much riding on the fixture. Slovenia against Kazakhstan might still be a match that has something to fight for and the final match of the day is certainly the best one to look out for as Ukraine play Italy. Assuming Italy would have beaten North Macedonia a few days earlier, this is a straight playoff with the winner taking second spot in Group C.
The last day for European qualification matches is on Tuesday when the likes of Croatia, Netherlands, Greece, Switzerland and Wales will all find out their fate. Whether or not they stand a chance of making it through will depend partly on the results of the previous rounds matches but, if things go their way, Croatia will have an easier match against Armenia than Wales have, as they must face off against Turkey. Group winners France end their campaign in Greece and the Netherlands will almost be guaranteed three points in Gibraltar.
As well as the aforementioned qualification matches, there are a number of friendlies as well as qualification matches from around the world. Belgium against Serbia is arguably the top friendly, a match set to be played on Wednesday. On Friday, the highlight from elsewhere include some great match ups between top teams in South America as the top two, Argentina and Uruguay face off against each other in Buenos Aires and Brazil play against Colombia. On Saturday, Germany continue their build-up to the tournament with another friendly, this time against Turkey and they play again on Tuesday, against neighbours Austria. Wednesday sees two of the world’s top teams clash in South America as Brazil host Argentina, a match that generates interest around the world.
Friday 17/11
Denmark vs Slovenia
This should certainly be an exciting encounter between two teams on equal points at the top of Group H as we head into the final two matches. A win for either of these teams will not only guarantee their qualification but will almost certainly ensure top spot. Denmark have seven home wins in European qualifiers so they will go into this match as favourites and in an optimistic mood. The last time Denmark lost at home in a qualification match in a similar qualifier was back in 2014 and they face a Slovenia side that they have never lost against in five previous matches. One player who will be missing from their line up is Manchester United striker Rasmus Højlund, who injured his hamstring last weekend.
A win for Slovenia would ensure qualification for only their second major tournament in their history as an independent nation. The last time they managed to make it to the main stage was in the year 2000. Anything other than a win means that they will face a winner take all clash with Kazakhstan on the last match day. Something for the Slovenians to build on is the fact that they have not conceded a goal in any of their last three matches but on the flip side they have never won a match away from home against a nation ranked higher than number 59 in the world.
These two have met five times with Denmark winning the first four meetings and the last one ending in a 1-1 draw back in June of this year.
England vs Malta
England will go into this match in a relatively relaxed frame of mind knowing that they have already qualified for the tournament next summer. They are unbeaten so far in this group, winning every match apart from a draw against Ukraine and the only thing left to play for is ensuring top seeding. Changes are expected for this match against minnows Malta with a number of first team players not included in this squad for various reasons. The likes of Reece James, Marcus Rashford, Jordan Henderson and Jude Bellingham are all missing from the squad but there are first call ups for Rico Lewis, Cole Palmer and Ezri Konsa. This would be an ideal fixture to offer some of these players their first taste of senior international football as they have thirteen wins at Wembley since September 2011 with ten of those thirteen matches accompanied by clean sheets.
Malta have had very little to be positive about of late, there seems to be little in the way of improvement in the way they play and they have lost all seven matches in this group so far, scoring only two goals. They have conceded nine goals in the last three matches and lost 4-0 at home to England earlier this year. It is likely they will view this as a damage limitation exercise but they would love to score against England, something they have only managed on one occasion in their previous six meetings.
Despite setting up to defend, Malta have conceded eighteen goals so far in the seven matches played in Group C and they also have conceded eighteen goals against England in total over their previous six meetings.
Italy vs North Macedonia
It’s worth remembering that Italy are defending champions, having won the final at Wembley last time out. They have struggled somewhat in this group and face a potentially tricky match against North Macedonia needing three points going into the last set of fixtures. It was North Macedonia that beat them in Palermo and took their place at last yer’s tournament, so Italy will need to be careful heading into this encounter. It is worth noting that this North Macedonia team isn’t performing at the same level and has nothing to play for in this match whereas Italy will be looking to draw level on points with Ukraine in their attempt to join England in Germany next summer. The reverse fixture was Luciano Spalletti’s first match in charge of Italy and they managed a 1-1 draw in that match, home fans will certainly be hoping for all three this time around.
North Macedonia certainly shocked many when they got the better of Italy last year but this time around they have nothing to play for. Their campaign has been a poor one with their only wins coming against Malta. They are unbeaten in their last three H2H’s against Italy but they have lost six of the last seven matches where they have started as outsiders.
These two have only played each other four times, with one win apiece and the other two matches ending as draws.
Argentina vs Uruguay
This is the fifth round of the qualification matches from South America for the next big world event, and this particular match is the 198th meeting between these two old rivals. Argentina are, of course, world champions and they have made an excellent start to their qualifying campaign for the next tournament, with four wins out of four matches so far. When it comes to head to head meetings between these two countries, Argentina definitely lead the way with 97 wins compared to 62 for Uruguay. Argentina head into this match with a high chance of picking up another three points and a win will mean they have five qualification wins in a row for the first time in two decades. They were unbeaten in their qualification for the last tournament, with eleven wins from seventeen matches played.
Uruguay have also made a very strong start, they are in second spot in the table and have two wins from their first four matches. A win here would be a great achievement as they have not beaten their old rivals for over a decade. Having said that, this is not a game they will be expecting to win and they will know that their qualification from this group will not depend on this match. They are already in a strong position and know that there are far more important head to head matches in future. That being said, a win over their rivals would be an excellent achievement and a real morale boost but they will have to improve on their recent poor away results, they have managed only two wins from their last nine matches.
Argentina have won six of the last ten meetings and Uruguay have only one win to their name which came back in 2013.
Saturday 18/11
Netherlands vs Ireland
An important match for the Netherlands as they look to find a way of making it to the tournament next summer. It has been a tough qualifying group and they have four wins from six matches so far. They needed a last minute winner against Greece in their last match in order to leapfrog the Greeks into second spot. Their squad hasn’t looked up to beating major teams and they appeared well short of challenging France and have also suffered defeats to Croatia and Italy in the NL. Nevertheless, qualification is in their hands and they will go into this match as very strong favourites and can even afford to not win, knowing that their final match will be against Gibraltar a few days later. Greece, on the other hand, must win against already qualified France and hope that the Netherlands slip up.
It has been an extremely disappointing campaign for Ireland who only have two wins against Gibraltar to show for their efforts in Group B. Poor home defeats to Greece, Netherlands and France ended any hopes they might have had of finishing in the top two. The only positive thing to come out of recent matches is the emergence of Brighton striker Evan Ferguson who scored in his last match against Gibraltar. They do still have a chance of making it to the playoffs but they will need to do so via the NL.
The Netherlands have beaten Ireland in five of the last ten meetings whereas Ireland have triumphed just twice.
Enjoy!
