PL Preview 2023/2024

It seems like only yesterday when Manchester City lifted the PL title on their way to their historic treble triumph, yet the new season is only days away. Football fans around the world have been waiting patiently for the resumption of the PL, as well as other leagues.

It has basically been a two month break for many fans, apart from the pre-season tours that take place all around the world every season. Many players would have been grateful for the extended break following last year’s elongated season. Last year’s international tournament being in the middle of the season meant that the usual domestic leagues started early and finished late, making it one of the longest and most gruelling seasons ever. This time around we are back to normal, which means that the PL starts in mid-August and the rest of the major European competitions follow on soon after. 

In England, the season starts with the Community Shield match, a traditional encounter between the winners of last season’s league and FA Cup. This will take place on Sunday 6th August and the league itself will start the following week. As is usually the case, a Friday night match will start things off and this season we will start with a trip to newly promoted Burnley, who host last season’s winners Manchester City. The rest of the fixtures from the opening day are spread over Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

Remembering last season

Last season was an exciting one and there were many unexpected aspects to the PL. One aspect that was no surprise was the eventual winner, Manchester City. Despite not getting off to the best of starts, they were superb after the international break, and their impressive run meant that they were able to overtake Arsenal and win yet another title. The fact that they went on to win the FA Cup and their first ever CL title illustrates just what a good team they are and it will be tough to go against them once again this season. Arsenal had a very good season, they were close to winning their first title in twenty years and most neutrals wanted them to do so. They eventually fell away, under the relentless pressure from Manchester City but the building blocks of a winning team are there. Manchester United showed much improvement last season by finishing third, winning the EFL Cup and reaching the FA Cup final. This season they will want to build on that, solidify their place in the top four and hopefully be able to put up some form of consistent challenge for the title itself. A very good first season for Erik Ten Hag saw some highly entertaining matches and good quality football but ultimately they were a way off both Arsenal and Manchester City. One of the most improved teams last season was Newcastle, their fourth place finish was an excellent achievement and one that Eddie Howe can be very proud of. They invested well and played some great football, it seems that the sleeping giant from Tyneside is waking up and will be a force to be reckoned with in coming years.

It was a disappointing season for Liverpool, who struggled with many injuries and missed out on top four and Tottenham had a season to forget as the instability in the dressing room with three managers meant they were unable to get anywhere close to top four. The biggest disappointment though was without a doubt Chelsea. The Londoners have been one of the most successful teams in England over the past twenty years but the new era under Todd Boehly got off to a poor, disorganised start. They spent a huge amount of money but seemed to have no plan as their bloated squad of players got through three managers in one season on their way to a lowly twelfth place finish. 

On the other hand, it was an excellent season for two very well run clubs, Brighton and Brentford. The former finished in sixth place after some excellent progress under Roberto de Zerbi, who built on the foundations laid by Graham Potter. Brentford once again performed very well, finishing in ninth place and beating some of the league’s big teams along the way.

We lost Leicester, league winners in 2016, Leeds United and Southampton this time around. All three can be considered ‘big’ teams and will be amongst the favourites to return again next season. That meant that, unusually, the three promoted teams all survived so we will once again watch Fulham, Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth. 

What to expect this season

Once again, the odds are firmly in favour of Manchester City to retain the title again. The way they dominate matches means it is a daunting task for any team going up against them. The battle for top four, however, is likely to be even more highly contested than last season. Arsenal, Manchester United and Newcastle will all feel that they deserve to be in the top four and will be hoping to push on and establish themselves. All have strengthened but will face tough competition from those just below them. Liverpool will certainly come again, they will demand more from themselves than last season without a doubt. Chelsea are an interesting case, as they were so far off the pace last season that it was easy to forget about them. However, their history and pedigree as well as a new manager and a more organised squad mean that they are likely to be in the top four battle once again. Then there are others, Tottenham will be hoping to do better and the likes of Brighton, Aston Villa and West Ham will be hoping to build on their successes last year. At the other end of the table, relegation looks like an open battle this time around. Luton are favourites to go down, this is their first stint in the Premier League and they look ill-equipped to cope with the demands. Sheffield United also look like they will have a difficult time but Burnley might have enough to stay up. Last season’s promoted teams will once again be looking over their shoulders, with Bournemouth looking particularly vulnerable. 

The battle for the Title

Followers of English football will be hoping for a different winner than Manchester City this season. That is not to say that people do not admire what last year’s winners do, but for the sake of competition and variety, another winner would be preferred. However, the odds firmly indicate that City are on track for another win this time around. They are currently given odds of 1.65 to win the 2023/24 PL and it’s not hard to see why. They have largely maintained the same squad with Kovačić replacing Gundogan being the major difference so far. 

Arsenal have been busy in the transfer market and do look stronger than last season, they have signed some top quality talent to add to their squad. Jurrien Timber comes in from Ajax to offer more options in defence, a very accomplished signing. In midfield, they have added Declan Rice, the former West Ham captain who is an England regular and led his former team to ECL glory last season. The transfer fee for him was eye-watering but there is no doubt he is a quality addition and offers leadership as well as his ability as a player. Kai Havertz is the other major new signing for the team from North London, with fans being less sure about this transfer but willing to trust Arteta’s opinion. 

Manchester United have addressed two major issues of concern this transfer window. They made the difficult decision to release David de Gea and replace him with Andre Onana, a move that has been a long time coming and one that offers United the opportunity to play out from the back far more. The signing of Rasmus Højlund from Atalanta will give them an out and out striker option, albeit a young and relatively inexperienced one. They have also signed England international Mason Mount to add more options and goals from midfield. 

Newcastle have not been as active as many might have suspected but have added two quality midfielders to their ranks in Sandro Tonali and Harvey Barnes, slow but steady progress for the Magpies. 

Liverpool have had a very busy window, revamping their midfield. James Milner, Naby Keita, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Jordan Henderson have all left the club, as well as crowd favourite Roberto Firmino. In come Dominik Szobaszlai and Alexis Mac Allister with a couple more expected to join.

The best of the rest are likely to be Tottenham and Chelsea, although much will depend on the business that these teams can conduct before the start of the season.  

Overall, the battle for the title should be an interesting one, with Arsenal at 6.00, Liverpool at 9.00 and Manchester United at 12.00 likely to provide the biggest challenge to the dominance of Manchester City. We will have to wait until the transfer window closes and we have watched these teams for a week or two before giving our full judgement however. As usual, there is likely to be a surprise team. Some of the teams that made it into the EL and ECL might struggle with the demands of all the matches, so that would mean that Brighton, Aston Villa and Liverpool might struggle somewhat. It is also worth noting that this is Newcastle’s first CL involvement for many years. Based on these points and the fact that Chelsea have no European football at all this season, it might be worth backing them to finish in the top four, currently priced at 2.10, shorter than Newcastle. The way all these factors have come into play makes it an interesting battle. Could there be room for a surprise team in European places? Maybe a team like Brentford could replicate what Brighton did last year?

Top half of the table

Last season we had the unusual situation that two unfancied teams made it into Europe, Brighton and Aston Villa. These got in at the expense of Tottenham and Chelsea. However, playing in Europe is no doubt an added strain on the squad, as witnessed last season in the case of West Ham. Therefore, if we take the same scenario, it would seem likely that Tottenham and Chelsea would have better league seasons than they did last year and finish above both Brighton and Aston Villa. The remaining spots in the top half are very open at this stage. Perhaps Burnley can impress on their return to the top flight or maybe Crystal Palace will improve under Roy Hodgson. West Ham have a squad capable of finishing in the top half but they are once again involved in Europe and have lost their captain and star player Declan Rice. Brentford too will be without their star player, Ivan Toney,  for much of the season.

Relegation Battle

Luton are without a doubt the favourite to finish last and make a swift return to the Championship. Their promotion was a fairy tale of sorts but they appear ill-equipped to cope with the demands of top flight football. Their stadium is tiny by modern standards and their players have very little experience at this level. Sheffield United are another promoted team who appear to simply be happy being in the PL and don’t seem to be preparing for much of a survival battle. Burnley look stronger and out of the three by far the most likely to survive. That leaves a relegation spot for a team that survived last year. Bournemouth are the obvious candidates as their survival last year was unexpected, they fired their manager and have yet to significantly strengthen. Nottingham Forest have not spent as much money as last season but look to be better than others around them and the other obvious choice is Everton. The Toffees seem to flirt with relegation every season and only just avoided going down on the last day last season. Once again their hands are tied with regards to bringing in players so they will be relying on some magic from Sean Dyche yet again. 

We will, without a doubt, witness some surprises as the season progresses. It will be good to have the usual timetable back without the major international interruption and we will be entertained by a normal season as we approach next summer’s big international tournament in Germany. The overall unpredictability of the PL, as well as quality of players and coaches on offer will result in many debates for the upcoming months. Fans will be eagerly looking forward to the conclusion of the transfer window, the busy Christmas schedule as well as the European and domestic cup matches and the final run in as another season of the world’s most watched league kicks into action.